The long-awaited liftoff is here. On Wednesday, the target range for the fed funds rate was raised to 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent – from the previous range of zero to 0.25 percent. This is the first hike since 2006; … Continued
Today is one of the most anticipated FOMC meetings in a long time, if not ever. Markets expect a hike. The Fed has convinced them of that. Fed funds futures are pricing in a 83-percent chance of a hike. The … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 24, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to Thanksgiving last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: Chances of the Fed moving next month (FOMC … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 29, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Hat tip to bond vigilantes! Heading into the FOMC meeting two weeks ago, they never bought into the message coming out of the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 15, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: When the Fed finally raises rates – whenever that is – ahead of that move should we now pay attention to fed funds … Continued
It is an understatement to say that trading in Treasury bonds was volatile last week – just check out the action on various yields. From intra-day low to high, the 10-year yield swung 20 basis points, but closed out the … Continued