Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 18, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 380.8k, down 13k. With pressure growing from diverse quarters, including the White House, to stay pat in this week’s meeting, the Fed went ahead … Continued
The FOMC meets this week. A 25-basis-point hike is expected, so is a shift to a dovish bias. Watch out if stocks, beaten up the past two and a half months, cannot rally on this, and/or shorts quickly show up … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 11, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 393.8k, up 100.6k. Next week – on 18-19 – the FOMC meets. This is the last meeting this year. A 25-basis-point raise is expected, … Continued
The 10-year T-yield dropped from 3.24 percent a month ago to last Thursday’s intraday low of 2.83 percent. The daily chart is grossly oversold. A rally looks imminent near term, meaning TLT is headed lower. US average hourly earnings for … Continued
The S&P 500 hurriedly jumped 6.4 percent in seven sessions. Impatient bulls essentially handed out shorts an opportunity to once again show up at 2800. The risk is the downside, but it is likely 2800-2600 remains intact in the next … Continued
After a decent rally in equities last week, this week has on the docket several potentially market-moving events – from FOMC meeting to mid-term elections to China trade. Longs can think of selling some covered calls. Last week, two separate … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 30, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 502.8k, down 41.2k. The 10-year Treasury rate continues to trade in a no-man’s land. Sort of. On October 5, it began retreating after touching … Continued
On a 12-month rolling total basis, federal deficit in August shot up to just under $900 billion. This at a time when the US economy is in expansion. In all probability, the red ink only gets worse from here. The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 25, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 756.3k, up 71.6k. Markets versus the Fed. Odds of a collision next year continue to rise. Post-FOMC meeting this week, the dot plot kept … Continued
Wednesday, the Fed hiked by 25 basis points and the FOMC dot plot continued to forecast another hike this year and three more next. The 10-year T-rate lost four basis points in that session. It increasingly looks like $116 on … Continued