How times have changed? It did not take long for markets’ attention to do a 360 from fears of deflation to that of inflation. January’s consumer price index was reported Wednesday. It was stronger than expected. In the 12 months … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 215.6k, up 97.7k. Last week, the futures-market odds of a 25-basis-point hike in the March (20-21) meeting in the fed funds rate stood at … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 23, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 117.9k, up 28.6k. Tuesday, a two-day FOMC meeting begins. This is the year’s first, and will be Janet Yellen’s, the outgoing chair, last. (The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.9k, up 121k. Is this the big one? The big breakout in 10-year Treasury yields, that is? The 10-year has been trapped in a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 2, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 75.8k, down 7.8k. It is on. Doves versus hawks. At least for now. FOMC minutes for the December 12-13 meeting highlighted the growing tension … Continued
XLF shorts who are slightly underwater can use options to repair the damage. Hypothetically last Thursday, XLF ($28.06) was shorted intraday at $27.96 ($27.84 adjusted for dividends). Here was the thought process. The ETF remains overbought on nearly all timeframe. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 12, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 44.7k, up 30.4k. The Fed and the Administration are not on the same page when it comes to expected growth in the U.S. economy. … Continued
XLF (SPDR financial sector ETF) has come a long way. This past September, it broke out of major resistance at just north of 25. Back in May 2007, the ETF retreated after hitting 25.11, before dropping all the way to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 5, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 14.3k, down 109.6k. On Tuesday next week, a two-day FOMC meeting begins. This is the eighth – and last – meeting this year. A … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 28, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 123.9k, up 12.9k. The U.S. economy is in its ninth year of recovery. Post-Great Recession, real GDP has grown at an average 2.2 percent. … Continued