Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 26, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 256.6k, down 13.5k. The Treasury yield curve widened this week. The spread between 10- and two-year notes went from 78 basis points on Monday … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 19, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 270.1k, up 18.4k. Americans’ love for leverage needs no elaboration. The debt culture began in earnest in the early ’80s. Leverage remains high – … Continued
It is probably a foregone conclusion that the Fed later today leaves interest rates unchanged, and will announce a plan to gradually shrink its massive portfolio of mortgage and Treasury bonds. The question is, how would the markets react? The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 12, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 251.7k, up 29.9k. The FOMC’s two-day meeting begins Tuesday. A press conference by Janet Yellen, Fed chair, is scheduled for Wednesday. After this, there … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 5, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 221.8k, down 61.9k. Last week, 2Q17 real GDP growth was revised higher to three percent – much better than the post-Great Recession average of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 29, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 283.7k, up 22.5k. Hurricane Harvey may have given the Fed an excuse not to hike come December. At least that is how markets are … Continued
Just when one thought the North Korean crisis had died down, Kim Jong-un fires another missile. Did gold anticipate this? On Monday, the metal scored what could turn out to be an important breakout. To be fair, gold reached a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 22, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 261.2k, up 60.7k. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in 40 percent odds of a 25-basis-point increase in December, while September and November are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 8, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 229.8k, up 19k. In the past several months, several Fed officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, have expressed concern over persistently rising stock-market valuations. Using … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 25, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 280.7k, down 1.6k. After seven years of keeping the fed funds rate between zero and 25 basis points, the Fed began to hike in … Continued