From early October, the S&P 500 is down 18 percent. Important support lies at 2400, or just underneath. Several indicators are at/near panic levels. Risk-reward odds favor unwinding of these conditions sooner than later. There is blood on the Street. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 539.2k, up 36.3k. In January, the 10-year Treasury rate broke out of 2.62 percent. Then in September, it took out 2.95 percent, followed by … Continued
What a week! Stocks really took it on the chin last week, but by Friday there was some semblance of stability. Several indicators are in deep oversold territory. At least a reflex rally is due. During the carnage over the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 9, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 622.4k, down 117.8k. Back in July 2016, the 10-year Treasury rate (3.14 percent) bottomed at 1.34 percent. Since then, it has made higher lows. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 28, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 529.8k, down 170.7k. July’s core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – was reported Thursday. Inflation perked up … Continued
The S&P 500 just broke out of trend-line resistance from late January, and apparently spent tons of energy in doing so. Near-term, the options market is reflecting elevated optimism. Unwinding is likely. US stocks enjoyed a nice rally in the … Continued
Major US equity indices continue to try to repair the technical damage they sustained in February and March. After a decent rally in the past couple of weeks, risks are rising near term. Foreigners sold $1.2 billion in US stocks … Continued
U.S. equity bulls stepped up near important support Tuesday. Those lows have now taken on significance. Should there be no violation, the path of least resistance is up – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. In the early months of 2016, stocks … Continued
Once Again, a rally in VIX was used as an opportunity to sell – sell hard. Last Friday, in the wake of the Michael Flynn news, VIX shot up to 14.58 intraday but only to end the session up 0.15 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 28, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 123.9k, up 12.9k. The U.S. economy is in its ninth year of recovery. Post-Great Recession, real GDP has grown at an average 2.2 percent. … Continued