Since the August 24th low in U.S. stocks and the subsequent rally, some signs of risk-on are visible, but small-caps are substantially lagging large-caps. In Chart 1, a product of XLV (healthcare), XLU (utilities) and XLP (consumer staples) is divided … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 6, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Since the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, barring comments from hawks like John Williams, president of the San Francisco Fed, and Dennis Lockhart, president … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 29, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Hat tip to bond vigilantes! Heading into the FOMC meeting two weeks ago, they never bought into the message coming out of the … Continued
Buy-the-dippers have been a roadblock to shorts’ success. It is probably not an exaggeration to say that the prevailing buy-the-dip mentality in U.S. equities has done to this bull market what oxygen does to a fire. When O is present, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 28, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The week was a head-scratcher from the standpoint of bond vigilantes’ reaction. The 10-year yield rallied hard on a very weak 1Q15 GDP … Continued
Short interest as of the end of March was flat on an index level, but action was hot and heavy on an industry/sector level. On the NYSE, short interest was 15.68 billion, down from 15.69 billion two weeks ago. On … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 31, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: At some point, the streak had to end. For 12 months to February, U.S. non-farm payroll grew 200k-plus month-over-month. Consensus was for that … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 24, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: After what these traders heard out of the FOMC last week, they decided to step on the accelerator. Net shorts went up 67 … Continued
NYSE short interest rises to match mid-Oct highs, diverges from Nasdaq Within Nasdaq, shorts aggressive in pure tech, but less so in biotech Relatively low short interest on IBB probably does not help longs It is getting a little difficult … Continued
Small-caps relative outperformer past several weeks Hard to make fundamental case, but technically RUT acts very well Ideal, and probable, scenario: RUT pulls back for successful retest of recent breakout There is something very interesting going on in the small-cap … Continued