There is confusion in the markets. Several times this month, bulls tried to take momentum by the horns, but only to get gored, including last Friday. Bears have not had a smooth ride either. Amidst this back-and-forth action, major US … Continued
Stocks have rallied big on hopes of even easier monetary policy. In the very near term, bulls carry the momentum ball. Medium- to long-term, a daunting task likely awaits them. The Fed’s toolkit is inadequate. Plus, its stimulative measures may … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 4, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 467.7k, up 91.5k. Friday’s intraday low of 2.05 percent came pretty close to testing the September 2017 low of 2.03 percent. A breach of … Continued
An oversold market, desperate for positive news – real or perceived – got some Tuesday. Major US equity indices rallied massively, closing right at/near important resistance. In the right circumstances for bulls, more upside is likely near term. Medium-term risks … Continued
From trade disputes to declining corporate profits to yield-curve inversion, there is no shortage of issues for worrywarts to worry about. From recent highs, major US equity indices have dropped in the mid- to high-single digits. Medium term, more downside … Continued
The S&P 500 just notched a fresh high. Volatility is as good as dead. Under this calmness lies early signs of life. Volatility is quiet, even dead. VIX (13.11) continues to loiter around the bottom end of a one-year range … Continued
US stocks are on fire. The Russell 2000/IWM was essentially unchanged last week, with the index down 0.03 percent and the ETF up 0.06 percent. This followed nine weeks of persistent rally, during which they jumped 34 percent. Conditions are … Continued
Bulls continue to defend 2600-2630 on the S&P 500. Breach risks are rising. VIX, which since October has stayed rather elevated, is itching to rally. After a three-month, 20-percent drop, the S&P 500 large cap index (2640) bottomed intraday on … Continued
The FOMC meets this week. A 25-basis-point hike is expected, so is a shift to a dovish bias. Watch out if stocks, beaten up the past two and a half months, cannot rally on this, and/or shorts quickly show up … Continued
Bulls and bears continue to show up at 2600 and 2800 respectively. The S&P 500 just tested support – successfully. Odds favor a rally here. There is dry powder in money-market funds, even as fear reflected in the options market … Continued