The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 20, 2016. 10-year note: A steeper yield curve is typically associated with a strengthening economy. So when the Bank of Japan says it will target a steeper yield curve, what … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 13, 2016. 10-year note: More and more, we are beginning to hear from commentators – both professional and in media – that major central banks are increasingly hesitant about … Continued
Seven weeks of sideways action on the S&P 500 large cap index has been resolved. Last Friday, the index dropped 2.5 percent, for a weekly drop of 2.4 percent. This comes on the heels of an important breakout in July. … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 6, 2016. 10-year note: Is the ECB reaching the end of the stimulus rope? This is not a consensus thinking, but the bank may very well be trying to … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 30, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Prior to this week, after hawkish comments from several FOMC members, it looked like the August jobs report was the sole make-or-break data … Continued
At first glance, Charts 1 and 2 look identical. With a slight difference. The red line is represented by the S&P 500 large cap index in both. The green bars are different. In Chart 2, these bars represent non-commercials’ weekly … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 23, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: In the Greenspan era, traders did not have to deal with the kind of mixed messages they do today. Back then, the message … Continued
That the green line in Chart 1 is increasingly taking the form of a coiled spring is non-debatable. That the longer it stays compressed in oversold territory, the higher the odds of a spike higher is non-debatable. What is debatable … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 16, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: One more prominent central banker this week seemed to throw his hands up in the air. John Williams, San Francisco Fed president, in … Continued
To say that stocks have diverged from a whole host of things ranging from earnings to Treasury bonds to crude oil to economic data is an understatement. This is not some new phenomenon … has been going on for a … Continued