At Some Point, Increasingly Hawkish Fed, And Its Action, To Result In Flattening Yield Curve

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

The FOMC meets this week. Stocks are adjusting to an increasingly hawkish Fed, which is belatedly alarmed by the persistently rising inflation. At some point, the long end of the treasury yield curve is likely to cry uncle, putting earnings … Continued

4Q21 S&P 500 Earnings Revision Trend Flat Since Last Aug, With Massive Growth Deceleration in ’22 and ’23

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Three major US banks drew mixed reaction post-earnings last Friday as the 4Q21 season got underway in earnest. Ahead of this, the S&P 500 is acting a bit weak, but no major support has been breached. If anything, bulls at … Continued

S&P 500 On Verge Of Breakout; Bulls Not Fazed By CPI Report, FOMC Meeting On Deck

posted in: Uncategorized | 0

This market wants to rally. Plain and simple. In a seasonally favorable period, Friday’s red-hot CPI report was embraced by equity bulls. The S&P 500 is itching to break out. If Powell on Wednesday sounds more hawkish that currently priced … Continued

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Close To Forming Reversal Candles In Nov.; Bulls’ Mettle Will Be Tested At Nearby Support

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

With two sessions to go, November is on the verge of flashing a yellow flag on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. These indices of late have diverged with deteriorating consumer sentiment. In a seasonally favorable period, some key … Continued

As Buybacks Come Back In Vogue, S&P 500 Sits At Crucial Juncture – Can Break Out As Easily As Break Down

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

As S&P 500 earnings staged massive recovery from post-pandemic lows, buybacks are back in fashion. Thus far in 4Q, the index is already up north of nine percent, pricing in a lot of seasonality optimism. As things stand, the index … Continued

Russell 2000’s Box Breakout Last Week Diverges From Small-Cap Profit Momentum, Imminent Breakout Retest Will Be Telling

Last week’s breakout in the Russell 2000 is diverging from small-caps’ profit momentum. It is possible the index is pricing in elevated earnings estimates for next year. It is equally possible the breakout occurred primarily due to short squeeze. In … Continued

Earnings Season Set To Begin This Week – Post-Earnings Reaction Key, With Large-Cap Multiples Increasingly Set To Act As Headwind

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

The 3Q earnings season begins in earnest this week. Leading up to this, the revision trend is up and stocks have come under a little pressure. Post-earnings reaction likely gets influenced by several variables, not the least of which is … Continued

Amidst Signs Of Excesses, 50-Day Once Again Defended On S&P 500; Fed Readies To Taper/Tighten

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

The 50-day on the S&P 500 was once again defended. Households’ equity exposure is on course for yet another high in 3Q, even as margin debt jumped to yet another record in August. Amidst these signs of excesses, the Fed … Continued

Last Week, VIX And S&P 500 Moved Hand In Hand; Volatility Is Itching To Move Up

Last week, the VIX index and the S&P 500 moved together – a rare occurrence. At least near term, the former seems to be itching to move up and the latter down. Medium- to long-term, how tapering evolves, and its … Continued

S&P 500 Earnings Look Very Good On Absolute Basis, But Growth Rate On Pace To Rapid Deceleration Soon

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

The S&P 500 is probably headed for a test of the 50-day, which is merely 1.5 percent away. Should the average be breached, it will have come at a seasonally tough period and at a time when earnings look very … Continued