Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 29, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 471.1k, up 112.4k. “When the pendulum swings too far in one direction it will go back,” Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg once said. … Continued
US small-caps are outperforming. Price action is great. But large-caps are not on the same page. And high-yield corporate bonds have diverged with small-caps for a while now. In early 2016 when US stocks reached a major low, several other … Continued
SPY has broken out of late-January trend line, but acts lethargic, even as short-term technicals are in overbought territory. Options can help. Since the bull market began in March 2009, time and again shorts have lent a helping hand to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 22, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 358.6k, down 23.3k. Ten-year Treasury yields (2.93 percent) bottomed intraday at 2.72 percent on April 2, then quickly rose to 3.12 percent on May … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 15, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 381.9k, down 26.7k. The Trump administration demands that China cut its trade gap with the US by $200 billion. Last year, China ran a … Continued
The S&P 500 just broke out of trend-line resistance from late January, and apparently spent tons of energy in doing so. Near-term, the options market is reflecting elevated optimism. Unwinding is likely. US stocks enjoyed a nice rally in the … Continued
Intraday over seven sessions, SPY rallied 5.4 percent. If not an outright reversal, at least a breather is the path of least resistance near term, creating opportunity to earn premium in options. The 1Q18 earnings season is nearly over. As … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 8, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 408.6k, down 37k. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.97 percent) once again is hammering on three percent. On April 25, yields retreated after rising intraday … Continued
First-quarter earnings are coming in strong, but stocks are stuck in a rut. There is room to rally near term, with tons of overhead resistance. One common complaint among the bulls is that US stocks of late have failed to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 1, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 445.7k, down 16.5k. US inflation of late has firmed up. Core PCE – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – jumped 1.88 percent … Continued