Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 19, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 359.5k, up 23.5k. Volatility remains suppressed – pretty much across the investing landscape. In US equities, both small-caps and tech – considered risk-on – … Continued
China’s holdings of Treasury securities fell $5.8 billion month-over-month in April to $1.18 trillion. It remains the largest holder of these securities. In China versus the US, if the current trade spat turns into a trade war, these securities could … Continued
The long end of the Treasury yield curve is doing it again. It refuses to go along with the Fed’s tightening campaign, particularly so Wednesday as policymakers were a slightly more hawkish than previously. Wednesday, the Fed raised the fed … Continued
With bulls latching on to every positive fundamental data, small-caps continue to build on breakout from three weeks ago. From the perspective of how they are acting and how they have outperformed their large-cap peers, small-caps are winning big. After … Continued
US small-caps are outperforming. Price action is great. But large-caps are not on the same page. And high-yield corporate bonds have diverged with small-caps for a while now. In early 2016 when US stocks reached a major low, several other … Continued
SPY has broken out of late-January trend line, but acts lethargic, even as short-term technicals are in overbought territory. Options can help. Since the bull market began in March 2009, time and again shorts have lent a helping hand to … Continued
There are some interesting dynamics in play in the small-cap sector – encompassing both fundamentals and technicals. Post-tax cuts of last December, earnings estimates were sharply revised higher. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 was signed into law … Continued
Intraday over seven sessions, SPY rallied 5.4 percent. If not an outright reversal, at least a breather is the path of least resistance near term, creating opportunity to earn premium in options. The 1Q18 earnings season is nearly over. As … Continued
There are some signs US consumers are beginning to save up a little and cut down on credit card debt. If – big IF – sustained, this will have consequences for the economy, not to mention stocks. In general, a … Continued
First-quarter earnings are coming in strong, but stocks are stuck in a rut. There is room to rally near term, with tons of overhead resistance. One common complaint among the bulls is that US stocks of late have failed to … Continued