Whipsaws aplenty; difficulty distinguishing signal from noise

posted in: Derivatives, Equities | 0

Put-to-call ratios, VIX:VXV point to potential selling pressure in stocks But large specs expecting lower VIX not in agreement with peers betting on lower SPX Task of separating wheat from chaff – which signal to treat as signal and which … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 21, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Are bond vigilantes expecting a hawkish tone from the FOMC next week?  The latter meets on 28-29.  For the most part, macro data … Continued

Limp signal out of vol of vol, but VIX:VXV probably sides with bulls N/T

posted in: Derivatives, Equities | 0

Both bulls and bears holding on to turf; S&P 500 remains range-bound VIX:VXV pokes head out of oversold zone but unable to make further progress Volatility of volatility jumped to highest four months ago; in no-man’s land currently Bulls and … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 3.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: They continued to add to net shorts, and it has so far backfired.  Post-jobs report Friday, the 10-year yield shot up 13 basis points. … Continued

‘Buy the dips’ in process of transitioning into ‘sell the rallies’?

’15 growth in revenue/earnings expected to decelerate for most S&P 500 sectors Signal from options market points to probable pressure ahead for equities S&P 500 looks set to at least test if recent breakout was genuine At first glance, U.S. … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 24 (Tuesday).  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Non-commercials are doing it again.  They increased net shorts by 63 percent in the latest reporting period.  Turns out they picked a wrong … Continued

Breakouts deserve respect, successful test will validate move

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Amidst deteriorating U.S. earnings picture and geopolitical uncertainty, stocks resilient Major indices break out, but how much buying power did bulls expend? Breakouts deserve respect, unless they are proven false Are U.S. equities trying to tell us something? Almost out … Continued

VIX says sky is clear, SKEW says institutions getting ready for clouds

posted in: Derivatives, Equities | 0

VIX:VXV itching to move higher, which could put stocks under pressure VIX suggests calm, but SKEW points to institutions buying tail-risk protection Put-to-call ratios have had extreme readings past several sessions on both CBOE, ISE The S&P 500 Large Cap … Continued