Despite the massive rally in stocks since December lows, Investors Intelligence bulls are not giddy, though NAIIM members are not quite sending the same message. Ditto with the percent of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day. Investors Intelligence bulls continued … Continued
Major equity indices are within striking distance of fresh highs. Bulls hope the low hurdle in 1Q19 earnings helps put volatility under more pressure. Trader reaction to earnings is key. Major US equity indices are a stone’s throw away from … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 9, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 261.6k, up 37.3k. During the week, job openings painted a mixed picture. Non-farm job openings (JOLTS) for February dropped 538,000 month-over-month to 7.1 million. … Continued
Stocks have rallied massively into 1Q earnings season. Estimates have been revised lower in a big way. The bar is low. But not valuation multiples. It is a decision time for longs to either hold or fold. US companies are … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the Mar 16-29 period in 10 S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) In October last year, XLB (57.42) lost support just north of 56, which then repeatedly … Continued
Kudos to equity bulls for pulling off an impressive reversal off of late-December lows. Major indices have now rallied for over three months, pushing them into extended territory. Looking at VIX futures, a lot of the good news is in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 224.2k, up 57.7k. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.5 percent) rallied nine basis points this week. Support around the intraday low of 2.36 percent eight … Continued
On the eve of 1Q19 earnings season, the Russell 2000 sits right underneath short-term trend-line resistance. After this lies crucial 14-month horizontal ceiling. How non-commercials position themselves this week could leave clues as to how the index might fare in … Continued
The 1Q19 earnings season is upon us. Expected growth has softened. The bar is low. The sell-side expects growth to pick up speed in the second half. Operating earnings of S&P 500 companies are expected to grow 9.1 percent this … Continued
The 10-year T-yield not only lost a rising trend line from July 2016 but also decade-old support at 2.62 percent. TLT has been on a tear, but is overbought; digestion of the recent gains is the path of least resistance. … Continued