U.S. small-caps are rallying. Rallying hard. Harder than several of their peers. Since the intra-day low on February 11th, the Russell 2000 small cap index is up just north of 14 percent, also breaking out of 1035. This level approximates … Continued
NYSE margin debt continues to deflate. Right before the 2008/2009 bear market ended, margin debt shrunk to $173.3 billion in February 2009. It then gradually rose. The previous high of $381.4 billion in July 2007 was surpassed in April 2013 … Continued
Arguably, if U.S. stocks followed crude oil or economic data, they probably would be a lot lower. Operating earnings of S&P 500 companies peaked at $29.60 in 3Q14, and have been decelerating since. With 474 companies having reported 4Q15 (as … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 23, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Negative interest rates have suddenly become the topic du jour. Last month, Japan waded into negative interest rate policy (NIRP). This was totally … Continued
Negative interest rates have been in the headlines for a while now. Since Janet Yellen’s, Fed chair, Congressional testimony last week, it has been doing so with increasing frequency. Does the Fed even have the legal authority to use negative … Continued
The Federal Reserve would like some inflation. In fact, every major central bank would. Or, for that matter, every debtor would – be it an individual, a corporation, or a sovereign nation. For debtors, a little inflation goes a long … Continued
U.S. stocks began 2016 on the wrong foot. That is an understatement. In fact, major indices peaked intra-day on December 29th (2015). Using that high, the S&P 500 large cap index through the intra-day low on January 20th lost 13 … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 16, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Global GDP will only expand at three percent this year. Says the OECD – the latest body to cut growth forecast this year. … Continued
U.S. home ownership has ticked up four-tenths of a percent since 2Q15 to 63.8 percent in 4Q15. The 63.4 percent two quarters ago was the lowest since 63.3 percent in 1Q67. Since the all-time high of 69.2 percent in 2Q04, … Continued
Among U.S. corporates last year, issuance of high-yield bonds fell for the second straight year, to $261 billion. The peak was reached in 2013 at $334 billion, followed by $311 billion in 2014 (Chart 1). Investment-grade as well as total … Continued