Bulls On Back Foot, Bears’ Growl Getting Louder

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

2134.72. That is the all-time record the S&P 500 Index (1948.86) notched on May 20.  It is possible in the annals of stock market history this high will be viewed with the same level of trepidation/respect as 1553.11 (March 2000 … Continued

JNK Relief Rally Possible Short-Term, But More Pain Probably Lies Ahead Medium- To Long-Term

posted in: Commodities, Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

One look at Chart 1, and it is hard to notice a significant change in momentum behind the U.S. high-yield debt market.  Through July, issuance totaled $188.4 billion.  Annualized, 2015 is on track to issuing north of $300 billion – … Continued

Iron Condor On SPY Assuming Range-Bound Action Continues This Week

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Of late, volatility has been volatile.  Twice in the past 15 sessions, VIX, the S&P 500 Volatility Index, has surpassed 16, only to quickly reverse to the downside, and broken below 12 three times, only to reverse to the upside. … Continued

COT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 4, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell told CNBC on Wednesday that he has not made up his mind yet on whether interest rates should … Continued

EEM Looks Ripe For Buy-Write

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

After a three-month 17-percent drop, EEM, the iShares Emerging Markets ETF, looks ripe for an options trade. On May 22, 2013, Ben Bernanke, then-Fed chair, suggested that the Fed would begin tapering back nearly $70 billion in monthly purchases of … Continued

Cash-Secured Put Probably Better Suited Than Bullish Risk Reversal For IYT

It has been a while the transports sector has acted like a sick puppy.  Yesterday’s action is a welcome change. IYT, the Dow Jones Transportation Average ETF, peaked November 28th last year at $166.55 – much earlier than other major … Continued

Cash-Secured Put On TLT

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

TLT, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund, declined 16 percent between the all-time intra-day high of 137.09 on January 30 and the low of 115.26 last Wednesday. It is as if the bond market globally has been awakened from … Continued

Bulls retake baton, as RUT eyes golden cross

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

After impressive two-day advance, Russell 2000 on verge of bullish golden cross Potential unwinding of VIX surge of early this week to act as tailwind for stocks In the end, rally nothing but gift for patient bears to short from … Continued

Momo favorite until not too long ago, small-caps get no love

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Having lagged large-caps since March, small-caps have very weak technical underpinnings, and are getting close to a make-or-break level.  Non-commercial futures traders have astutely taken advantage of the decline.  Watch what they do. It has been a while this blog … Continued