CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 21, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 700.5k, up 2.3k. The 10-year T-yield (2.83 percent) lost five basis points this week.  The neckline of a potentially bearish head-and-shoulders formation has been … Continued

Versus Late-January Highs In US Stocks, Sentiment Nowhere As Giddy

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Major US equity indices are at/past late-January highs.  Investor sentiment, on the other hand, is nowhere near as giddy.  Is this good or bad? The Russell 2000 small cap index (1722.54) just broke out of a two-month pennant.  Of major … Continued

Nasdaq 100 Defends 50DMA But Unconvincingly, Bulls Can’t Afford Weekly Chart To Take Over

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

The top five in the Nasdaq 100 are done reporting 2Q.  They have had their post-earnings reaction – mostly positive.  This is occurring even as the index just got repelled at six-month channel resistance.  If bulls do not put their … Continued

Feeble Rectangle Breakout Last Week, SPY Gives Out Signs Of Fatigue

With a feeble rectangle breakout and rejection at the upper end of a rising channel last week, SPY is giving out signs of fatigue. Things look good.  Even great, some might argue.  This Friday, the first print of 2Q18 GDP … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 17, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 469.1k, up 30k. Speaking to Congress in his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony this week, Jerome Powell, Fed chair, downplayed the risks posed by debt, saying nothing … Continued

S&P 500 Breaks Out Of 2800, One More Hurdle Before Late-January High Is Tested

As 2Q earnings season got underway, the S&P 500 large cap index broke out of 2800.  If it were to rally toward its late-January all-time high, it has to first win over resistance around 2840. The S&P 500 (2809.55) faced … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 10, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 439.1k, down 60.9k. News this week that the Trump administration planned to impose tariffs on another $200 billion worth of imports from China resulted … Continued

Long And Short Of Short Interest

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the June 1-15 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Monday, XLB (57.83) bounced off the daily lower Bollinger band.  The daily chart is oversold.  … Continued

Early Signs Of Large-Cap Fatigue Spreading To Small-Caps, Tech

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Signs of fatigue are showing up in US equities.  It began with large-caps, and now there are early signs it is spreading to small-caps as well as tech. The small-cap switch was turned on right after Donald Trump was elected … Continued

Signs Of Fatigue Showing Up On S&P 500

Large- and small-cap divergence continues.  Versus the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500 is beginning to show signs of fatigue. Large-caps continue to fall behind small-caps.  Not to mention tech.  The S&P 500 large cap index was … Continued