Major US equity indices continue to try to repair the technical damage they sustained in February and March. After a decent rally in the past couple of weeks, risks are rising near term. Foreigners sold $1.2 billion in US stocks … Continued
If investor/trader reaction last Friday to financials’ 1Q18 results is any indication, we are in for some interesting weeks ahead. First-quarter earnings season began in earnest last week. For 1Q18, the sell-side expects $35.63 in operating earnings from S&P 500 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 10, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 330.6k, down 44.7k. Annual core CPI rose stronger-than-expected 2.12 percent in March. This was the first year-over-year reading with a two handle in a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 3, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 375.4k, up 70.2k. Ten-year Treasury yields (2.78 percent) rose from 2.03 percent last September to 2.94 percent this February. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate … Continued
February and March wrought technical damage on major US equity indices, but the path of least resistance increasingly looks up near term. March-quarter earnings season is upon us. This is the first quarter US companies will be reporting after the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 27, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 305.2k, down 8.1k. For the first time since mid-December last year, 10-year Treasury yields went under the 50-day moving average this week. On March … Continued
Risks are building medium- to long-term, but the Nasdaq 100 is getting oversold on the daily chart. After major U.S. equity indices reversed on February 9, tech-heavy indices were the only ones to rally to new highs. The Nasdaq 100 … Continued
Stocks are selling off, but major indices are at/near crucial support, testing the will of the bulls. High-yield spreads are tightening. In Chart 1, the ICE BofAML US high yield BB effective yield is pitted against Moody’s seasoned AAA corporate … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 20, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 313.3k, up 41.9k. Chairing his maiden meeting as Fed chief, Jerome Powell probably could not have asked for more insofar as markets’ reaction was … Continued
Post-February 9 reversal, both the Nasdaq composite and the Nasdaq 100 index went on to surpass the late January highs. Other indices such as the S&P 500 large cap index and the Dow Industrials could not match that feat. The … Continued