Determined not to let go of nearly four-month support, small-cap bulls once again stepped up to the plate Monday. From down 1.4 percent intraday to close the session up 0.2 percent, the Russell 2000 small cap index initially got pushed … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 21, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 100.4k, down 94k. In a Tuesday speech this week, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, said this: “If economic conditions evolve as I … Continued
Did U.S. small-caps lead or lag in the past four months? Depends on the timeframe. Post-November 8 election through the March 1 all-time high, the Russell 2000 small cap index rallied 18.4 percent. Year-to-date through that record high, it tacked … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 194.4k, down 104.1k. Equities up. Gold up. The US dollar index down. Ten-year Treasury yields down. This is how markets reacted to Wednesday’s FOMC … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 7, 2017. 10-year note: The Janet Yellen-led Fed – and the one led by her predecessor Ben Bernanke – believe in the wealth effect. Since the financial crisis, anytime equities came … Continued
Chart 1 shows decent relationship between year-over-year change in the S&P 500 large cap index and the ISM manufacturing index. U.S. manufacturing activity has picked up – from 49.4 last August to 57.5 in February. The 8.3-point six-month jump is … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 28, 2017. 10-year note: By Friday last week, fed funds futures were putting the odds of a rate hike in the upcoming FOMC meeting (March 14-15) at 34 percent. By Monday, … Continued
The Dow Industrials is on pace to creating history this week. Last Friday, it rose for 11 sessions in a row, for a cumulative gain of 3.8 percent. The longest streak was recorded in January 1987 when it rallied 11 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 21, 2017. 10-year note: Are we in for a March shock? Post-FOMC minutes on Wednesday, fed funds futures were pricing in a 32-percent chance of a rate hike in the March … Continued
Say what you want, equity bulls deserve kudos! There is an unprecedented bid under the market particularly since the election (November 8) last year. The S&P 500 large cap index has nearly rallied 11 percent since! The rubber band keeps … Continued