Of late, U.S. economic data have been coming in better than expected. Is this getting translated into better corporate sales and earnings? The Citi Economic Surprise Index has shot up from -80 in the middle of the year to 56. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 74.8k, up 24.8k. The dichotomy continues. At 1.73 percent, two-year T-yields, which reflect markets’ expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy, are the highest since … Continued
The Treasury’s Treasury International Capital System data contain a treasure trove of useful information as relates to flows of money into and out of the U.S for purchases and sales of U.S. securities. On this post, we will deal with … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 7, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 50.1k, up 47.3k. It was yet another instance of 10-year Treasury yields wilting well before even getting close to 2.6 percent. Are they sending … Continued
There is divergence in the markets. Tons of it. Large-caps are going one way and small-caps the other. Ditto with transports and high-yield. The Russell 2000 small cap index peaked on 1514.94 on October 5, before trending lower in a … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the October 16-31 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (58.20) peaked at 59.62 on the 26th. There are signs of distribution of late. … Continued
U.S. corporate bond issuance continues at a healthy pace, with high-yield in particular on course for growth this year after three consecutive yearly decline. In October, corporate debt issuance totaled $140.9 billion, consisting of $118.2 billion in investment-grade and $22.7 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 31, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 2.7k, down 150.9k. So Jerome Powell, current Fed governor, it is – the next chair. He is supposedly a dove – along the lines … Continued
In September, Americans saved a mere 3.1 percent of their disposable personal income. This was the lowest since three percent in December 2007. The savings rate has trended lower since peaking at 6.3 percent in October 2015, which means it … Continued