Foreigners kept selling US stocks in May, but their pace of selling substantially moderated in April and May. Bulls hope this is the beginning of a trend, as foreign buying – or a lack thereof – historically moves hand in … Continued
The sell-side customarily has lowered estimates going into the 2Q earnings season. Stocks have rallied since early June, thanks also to an impending rate cut by the Fed later this month and resumption of trade talks between the US and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 9, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 288.8k, down 48. In the first stare down with markets since his appointment in February last year, Jerome Powell, Fed chair, blinked. In this … Continued
The S&P 500 index was one of the major US indices to rise to new highs yesterday. The broader market, as represented by the Value Line geometric index, is not taking part in this. In US markets – or any … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 288.9k, up 7.8k. Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears before Congress this week. This comes on the heels of a strong payroll report in June. … Continued
June’s stronger-than-expected payroll print has the potential to change the Fed’s interest-rate outlook for the remainder of the year. Markets still expect at least two 25-basis-point cuts this year, including one later this month. Should Chair Jay Powell wish to … Continued
VIX this week broke two-month support, opening the door to a test of support at 11-12. Meanwhile, the volatility curve – in contango – is approaching a level that in the past coincided with a peak in stocks. With one … Continued
Investors increasingly are hiding in large-caps. The S&P 500 large cap index Monday reached a new all-time high, while the S&P 600 small cap index closed Tuesday 16 percent off its all-time high from last August. Stocks are rallying but … Continued
Stocks have rallied big on hopes of even easier monetary policy. In the very near term, bulls carry the momentum ball. Medium- to long-term, a daunting task likely awaits them. The Fed’s toolkit is inadequate. Plus, its stimulative measures may … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 25, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 281.1k, down 121.9k. Since peaking at 3.25 percent last October through the intraday low seven sessions ago of 1.98 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield … Continued