XLF, Rallying Along 2-Year Treasury Yield, Likely To Offer Opportunity To Shorts In Due Course

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

The correlation between financials and the two-year Treasury yield is tight.  The latter tends to be sensitive to Fed action. In recent months in particular, the two-year has been on a roller-coaster ride trying to keep up with FOMC members’ … Continued

Risk/Reward Favors S&P 500 Shorts Near- To Medium-Term

The chart below (Chart 1) caused a lot of stir last Friday – across asset classes, primarily in the U.S., and elsewhere. The U.S. economy only added 38,000 non-farm jobs in May, much weaker than expected and the lowest monthly … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 31, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: On June 14-15, the FOMC meets.  This is the year’s fourth meeting, and there will be four more left after this (July 26-27, … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 24, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Was that a yay or nay from Janet Yellen, Fed chair? In an interview at Harvard University on Friday, she said that an … Continued

Decent Odds Of Rally Near-Term So Long As S&P 500 Does Not Lose 2040

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Equity bulls are putting down their foot, and have near-term momentum on their side so long as 2040 on the S&P 500 is not lost. Off the April 20th high through last Thursday’s intra-day low, the S&P 500 lost four … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 17, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: More jawboning this week! Last week, three regional bank presidents – Eric Rosengren (Boston), Loretta Mester (Cleveland), and Esther George (Kansas City) – … Continued

S&P 500 Index: 200-DMA Path Of Least Resistance?

A week ago last Friday, U.S. stocks opened lower reacting to less-than-expected rise in April’s non-farm payroll.  As the session progressed, bids showed up, as traders began to price in lesser odds of a rate hike in June. Turns out … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 10, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Three FOMC voting members were on full jawboning mode on Thursday. Eric Rosengren, Boston Fed president, said markets are underestimating the likelihood of … Continued

Spot Gold Clinging On To Recent Breakout

There is a lot of excitement among non-commercial futures traders about spot gold’s prospects.  In the 12 weeks since February 9th through May 3rd, they nearly tripled net longs in gold futures – from 98,428 to 271,648 contracts – to … Continued