Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 12, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 336k, down 61.6k. With this week’s 25-basis-point raise, the fed funds rate now stands at 175-200 basis points, up 175 basis points since December … Continued
The long end of the Treasury yield curve is doing it again. It refuses to go along with the Fed’s tightening campaign, particularly so Wednesday as policymakers were a slightly more hawkish than previously. Wednesday, the Fed raised the fed … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 5, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 397.5k, down 73.5k. The FOMC meets next week. It is this year’s fourth meeting, and four more remain after this. The fed funds rate … Continued
Post-February 9 reversal, both the Nasdaq composite and the Nasdaq 100 index went on to surpass the late January highs. Other indices such as the S&P 500 large cap index and the Dow Industrials could not match that feat. The … Continued
The U.S. sovereign bond market has hit the headlines a lot these days. Rates have rallied big since September 2017 lows, but from suppressed levels, and are at crucial stage technically. At least near term, fundamentals do not allow for … Continued
Mediocre demand for Wednesday’s auction of $24 billion in 10-year Treasury notes probably reflects worries over rising deficit spending. In that auction, yields obviously were not attractive enough to entice aggressive buying. Ten-year yields ended the session up eight basis … Continued
It is probably a foregone conclusion that the Fed later today leaves interest rates unchanged, and will announce a plan to gradually shrink its massive portfolio of mortgage and Treasury bonds. The question is, how would the markets react? The … Continued
Just when one thought the North Korean crisis had died down, Kim Jong-un fires another missile. Did gold anticipate this? On Monday, the metal scored what could turn out to be an important breakout. To be fair, gold reached a … Continued
The euro looks tired. A pause in a prevailing uptrend or a decent peak? Non-commercial futures traders can potentially decide. Non-commercials have never been as bullish in euro futures since October 2013. As of Tuesday last week, they held nearly … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 2, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 179.9k, down 34.8k. Pre-FOMC decision this week, futures were pricing in 63 percent odds of a 25-basis point hike in June and 60 percent … Continued