There are signs of macro deceleration. Equities may be starting to price this in, but are not panicking. If the S&P 500 rallies near term, how investors behave around 2800 can signal what kind of deceleration lies ahead. On October … Continued
In the midst of a flattening yield curve, the 10-year T-yield is once again hammering on resistance at just north of three percent. Just a month ago, these notes yielded 2.81 percent. At least a pause is due, raising the … Continued
US economic data of late have been coming in strong. Real GDP printed 4.1 percent growth in 2Q18. This was the strongest growth rate in 15 quarters. As of last Friday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model expects 4.4 percent growth … Continued
The Nasdaq 100 index/QQQ could be potentially forming the right side of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. This week’s action could provide further clues. The US economy is one month short of completing nine years of expansion. The recovery has been … Continued
After healthy growth last three quarters, the U.S. economy is in deceleration, magnitude and duration notwithstanding. On Wednesday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model was forecasting 1Q18 real GDP growth of 1.9 percent, revised down from 2.5 percent, reflecting this week’s … Continued
There are signs growth is decelerating, but from a healthy level. Data relating to orders and inventories do not yet seem to be a problem, but worth watching. Most of this week’s economic data offered more of a downside surprise … Continued
The U.S. sovereign bond market has hit the headlines a lot these days. Rates have rallied big since September 2017 lows, but from suppressed levels, and are at crucial stage technically. At least near term, fundamentals do not allow for … Continued
Having stopped responding to improving U.S. fundamentals, the US dollar index currently sits at a confluence of technical support. The U.S. economy in recent quarters has put up strong numbers. Real GDP in 4Q17 grew at a seasonally adjusted annual … Continued
Ten-year Treasury yields rallied last week to right underneath the top end of a three-decade-old channel. A breakout has to wait for now. The 13-basis-point jump last week was big, and probably took many by surprise. At one point, yields … Continued
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index is doing very well so far this year – up 22.4 percent. This compares with a rise of 10.3 percent for the Dow Industrials, 10.1 percent for the S&P 500 large cap index, and a … Continued