In the wake of the tax cuts of December 2017, S&P 500 companies are paying less than 20 percent in income taxes. All good except the gap between GAAP and non-GAAP income remains. In 3Q19, S&P 500 companies paid 18.9 … Continued
Stars may be lining up near term for equity bulls, but medium-term worries remain. Margin debt and corporate buybacks are no longer providing the kind of tailwind they did until recently. Buybacks simply collapsed in 2Q19. With 94.9 percent of … Continued
The S&P 500 rallied to a new high last week. Since January last year, it has more or less treaded water, although there have been higher highs. Several potential sources of tailwind are missing in action. Corporate buybacks are the … Continued
The 1Q19 earnings season is upon us. Expected growth has softened. The bar is low. The sell-side expects growth to pick up speed in the second half. Operating earnings of S&P 500 companies are expected to grow 9.1 percent this … Continued
The Fed meets this week. It already shifted its bias from hawkish to dovish, helping stocks. With the economy softening, in due course the Fed may once again deploy balance sheet as a tool, which will initially help stocks, but … Continued
US stocks are on fire. The Russell 2000/IWM was essentially unchanged last week, with the index down 0.03 percent and the ETF up 0.06 percent. This followed nine weeks of persistent rally, during which they jumped 34 percent. Conditions are … Continued
Bulls are snorting – again. From the Boxing day bottom, the S&P 500 is up 14 percent. Last week, it recaptured 2630 as well as the 50-day. While healthy, the rally has come too far, too fast. Equity bulls deserve … Continued
Since the intraday low on Boxing Day, SPY is up nearly 11 percent. Too far, too fast? Possibly, as the ETF is just a hair breadth away from support-turned-resistance at 260, which it lost mid-December. The Fed has a dual … Continued
It is probably not coincidental that US stocks and Treasury yields peaked together early October. The 10-year rate is right near support and has room to rally near term. This should bode well for equity bulls who last week put … Continued
From early October, the S&P 500 is down 18 percent. Important support lies at 2400, or just underneath. Several indicators are at/near panic levels. Risk-reward odds favor unwinding of these conditions sooner than later. There is blood on the Street. … Continued