Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 13, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 333.2k, down 206k. On October 5, the 10-year rate (3.07 percent) began retreating after touching 3.25 percent – the highest since May 2011. Thursday … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 539.2k, up 36.3k. In January, the 10-year Treasury rate broke out of 2.62 percent. Then in September, it took out 2.95 percent, followed by … Continued
Thanks to last year’s tax cuts, corporate taxes have seen a big drop, with a wide gap between what corporations make and what they pay in taxes. While this gives them more money to spend on dividends and buybacks, this … Continued
After a decent rally in equities last week, this week has on the docket several potentially market-moving events – from FOMC meeting to mid-term elections to China trade. Longs can think of selling some covered calls. Last week, two separate … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 30, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 502.8k, down 41.2k. The 10-year Treasury rate continues to trade in a no-man’s land. Sort of. On October 5, it began retreating after touching … Continued
The ongoing selloff in equities has been quick and painful – similar to what transpired in February this year. Back then, once stocks bottomed, they proceeded to rally strongly. Will the current selloff evolve the same way? Too early to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 23, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 544k, down 71.9k. The 10-year Treasury rate (3.08 percent) shed 12 basis points this week – now down 17 basis points from the intraday … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 16, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 616k, down 6.5k. Three weeks ago, non-commercials were net short 756,316 contracts in 10-year Treasury note futures – a record. They have since reduced … Continued
On a 12-month rolling total basis, federal deficit in August shot up to just under $900 billion. This at a time when the US economy is in expansion. In all probability, the red ink only gets worse from here. The … Continued
What a week! Stocks really took it on the chin last week, but by Friday there was some semblance of stability. Several indicators are in deep oversold territory. At least a reflex rally is due. During the carnage over the … Continued