Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 27, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 284.2k, down 83k. Jerome Powell, Fed chair, moved markets on Wednesday. A whole host of asset classes reacted to his Economic Club of New … Continued
US stocks continued to take it on the chin last week. Amidst this rout that began early October, small-caps last week performed relatively better. Bulls hope this is a signal, not a noise, at least near term. US M2 money … Continued
If early this year the 10-year T-yield vouched for the strength of the US economy as it broke out of multi-year/decade resistance, what is it trying to tell us now that it seems to have hit the wall and is … Continued
There are signs of macro deceleration. Equities may be starting to price this in, but are not panicking. If the S&P 500 rallies near term, how investors behave around 2800 can signal what kind of deceleration lies ahead. On October … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 13, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 333.2k, down 206k. On October 5, the 10-year rate (3.07 percent) began retreating after touching 3.25 percent – the highest since May 2011. Thursday … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 539.2k, up 36.3k. In January, the 10-year Treasury rate broke out of 2.62 percent. Then in September, it took out 2.95 percent, followed by … Continued
Thanks to last year’s tax cuts, corporate taxes have seen a big drop, with a wide gap between what corporations make and what they pay in taxes. While this gives them more money to spend on dividends and buybacks, this … Continued
After a decent rally in equities last week, this week has on the docket several potentially market-moving events – from FOMC meeting to mid-term elections to China trade. Longs can think of selling some covered calls. Last week, two separate … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 30, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 502.8k, down 41.2k. The 10-year Treasury rate continues to trade in a no-man’s land. Sort of. On October 5, it began retreating after touching … Continued
The ongoing selloff in equities has been quick and painful – similar to what transpired in February this year. Back then, once stocks bottomed, they proceeded to rally strongly. Will the current selloff evolve the same way? Too early to … Continued