Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 17, 2017. 10-year note: Bond bears near term have as good a chance as any to push long bonds still lower. TLT, the iShares 20+year Treasury bond ETF, peaked this Tuesday, … Continued
There is a new entrant in the list of things dollar bulls are having to grapple with. It is the Donald. Bulls were already locking horns with overbought technicals and non-commercial futures traders who persistently refused to jump on the … Continued
Two thousand and seventeen has gotten off to a good start. In the first nine sessions of the year, the S&P 500 large cap index is up 1.6 percent. For the most part, the rally is driven by offensive sectors/industries, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 10, 2017. 10-year note: This is what makes a market. Two different bond luminaries looking at the same asset and coming up with two different analyses/conclusions. The issue in question is … Continued
The last time average hourly earnings of U.S. private-sector employees grew with a three handle was April 2009 … means in the current recovery wages are yet to print growth of three percent. December came close, with a year-over-year increase … Continued
The S&P 500 large cap index trades at 21.3 times operating earnings or 17.4 times or 15.5 times. Take your pick. The first one uses trailing 12-month earnings, and the latter two forward. In Chart 1, the red bars are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 3, 2017. 10-year note: Tuesday brought December’s ISM manufacturing index, which rose 1.5 points month-over-month to a two-year high 54.7; orders jumped 6.8 points m/m to a 25-month high. Ten-year yields … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 27, 2016. 10-year note: TLT, the iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF, has had a nasty drop since it reached a historic high of $141.91 on July 8 this year. Two … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 20, 2016. 10-year note: Ten-year Treasury yields peaked at 15.8 percent in September 1981, then dropping to 1.39 percent by July 2012. In July this year, those lows were slightly undercut; the … Continued
U.S. sales of existing homes increased 0.7 percent month-over-month in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million units. This was the highest since 5.79 million in February 2007 (Chart 1). Sales had been flat for over a … Continued