Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 1, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 445.7k, down 16.5k. US inflation of late has firmed up. Core PCE – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – jumped 1.88 percent … Continued
For first time in over four years, the 10-year Treasury rate surpasses three percent, only to raise the possibility that this is as high as it is going to go at least in the short term. After several quarters of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 24, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 462.1k, up 90.4k. Now what? The 10-year Treasury rate (2.96) crossed three percent this week – the first time this has happened since January … Continued
After rallies that lasted a little over two weeks, selling began on major US equity indices last week right at important resistance. This likely continues near term. US capacity utilization in March rose 0.4 percent month-over-month and 3.3 percent year-over-year … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 17, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 371.7k, up 41.1k. The Treasury yield curve once again is the talk of the town. The yield spread between 10- and two-year notes fell … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 10, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 330.6k, down 44.7k. Annual core CPI rose stronger-than-expected 2.12 percent in March. This was the first year-over-year reading with a two handle in a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 3, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 375.4k, up 70.2k. Ten-year Treasury yields (2.78 percent) rose from 2.03 percent last September to 2.94 percent this February. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 27, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 305.2k, down 8.1k. For the first time since mid-December last year, 10-year Treasury yields went under the 50-day moving average this week. On March … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 20, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 313.3k, up 41.9k. Chairing his maiden meeting as Fed chief, Jerome Powell probably could not have asked for more insofar as markets’ reaction was … Continued
Once again, 10-year Treasury yields failed at the top end of a long-term channel, although can push higher near term, creating a trading opportunity in TLT. Close, but no cigar! The 10-year rate came very close to breaking out of … Continued