Ten-Year T-Yield Still Trapped In L/T Channel – TLT As Trading Vehicle N/T

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

Once again, 10-year Treasury yields failed at the top end of a long-term channel, although can push higher near term, creating a trading opportunity in TLT. Close, but no cigar! The 10-year rate came very close to breaking out of … Continued

After Last Week’s Buy-Write, Weekly Covered Call On TLT

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

The U.S. sovereign bond market has hit the headlines a lot these days.  Rates have rallied big since September 2017 lows, but from suppressed levels, and are at crucial stage technically.  At least near term, fundamentals do not allow for … Continued

Markets’ Focus Shifts To Rising Inflation And Inflation Expectations – Would Fed’s?

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

How times have changed?  It did not take long for markets’ attention to do a 360 from fears of deflation to that of inflation. January’s consumer price index was reported Wednesday.  It was stronger than expected.  In the 12 months … Continued

Small-Cap Stocks Diverge From Small-Business Optimism

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Small-business optimism remains near multi-decade highs.  Small-cap stocks do not quite share this optimism. The NFIB optimism index rose two points month-over-month in January to 106.9, just a hair’s breadth away from November’s 107.5, which was a 34-year high.  Optimism … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 215.6k, up 97.7k. Last week, the futures-market odds of a 25-basis-point hike in the March (20-21) meeting in the fed funds rate stood at … Continued

Short Put For XLF Shorts To Repair Damage

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

XLF shorts who are slightly underwater can use options to repair the damage. Hypothetically last Thursday, XLF ($28.06) was shorted intraday at $27.96 ($27.84 adjusted for dividends). Here was the thought process. The ETF remains overbought on nearly all timeframe.  … Continued

What If?

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Is the U.S. economy strong, weak or just about right?  Better yet, is it getting stronger, weaker or going sideways?  The truth is, pessimists and optimists both can selectively pick and choose to support their own bias. That said, data … Continued

Savings Rate Drops To Decade Low – Elevated Home Prices Major Factor In Propping Consumer Confidence/Spending

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

In September, Americans saved a mere 3.1 percent of their disposable personal income.  This was the lowest since three percent in December 2007.  The savings rate has trended lower since peaking at 6.3 percent in October 2015, which means it … Continued

Going By Small-Cap Action, Investors Subtly Leaning Toward Risk-Off

If small-caps are a gauge of investor mood for risk- on and-off, then they are subtly beginning to lean toward risk-off. Of the four major U.S. indices – the S&P 500 large cap index, Dow Industrials, Nasdaq composite, and the … Continued