Amid Signs Of Fatigue, Potentially Bullish ‘What If’ For US Stocks

Arguably, US stocks are giving off some signs of fatigue.  The S&P 500 large cap index (2840.35) is still below its late-January high of 2872.87.  The Nasdaq 100 index (7395.49) in the week before was rejected at six-month-old channel resistance; … Continued

Nasdaq 100 Last Week Retreats From Crucial Level – Action This Week Could Be Telling

The Nasdaq 100 index/QQQ could be potentially forming the right side of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern.  This week’s action could provide further clues. The US economy is one month short of completing nine years of expansion.  The recovery has been … Continued

SPY Bulls Once Again Defend 200-DMA, Room To Rally N/T – Short Put For Premium

First-quarter earnings are coming in strong, but stocks are stuck in a rut.  There is room to rally near term, with tons of overhead resistance. One common complaint among the bulls is that US stocks of late have failed to … Continued

Shortly After Crossing 3%, 10-Year T-Yield Gives out Signs Of Fatigue – TLT Short Put

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

For first time in over four years, the 10-year Treasury rate surpasses three percent, only to raise the possibility that this is as high as it is going to go at least in the short term. After several quarters of … Continued

Infrastructure Spending – Markets Pricing In Too Much Of Good News?

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

“…I want to solve health care, jobs, border control, tax reform.” The above quote is from a weekend interview president-elect Donald Trump gave to the Wall Street Journal. The article also talks about his willingness to keep parts of the … Continued

Fed Up — Doing Same Thing Over And Over, But Expecting Different Results!

Three months.  That is all it took for the Fed to do a 360. In the middle of last December, the fed funds rate was raised for the first time in nine years – to still-zero-bound 37 basis points.  The … Continued

Bulls And Bears Cite Data To Suit Own Biases, Even As Markets Telling Us To Be Cautious

The chart below has fodder for both bulls and bears. At least going back to the last three decades – encompassing three recessions, including Great Recession – there have been five occasions in which the spot West Texas Intermediate crude … Continued

Scenario In Which U.S. M2 Money Velocity Continues Lower

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

If a chart gets retweeted 86 times, it is safe to say that the topic in question has touched a nerve in Twitter finance. The chart above had that distinction.  The topic it highlighted thus deserves a post.  So here … Continued