US stocks rallied strongly last week. Bulls enjoy momentum right now. That said, risk-on is not full-on. What transpires at 2890s on the S&P 500 can be a tell near term. May’s employment report was mixed at best and disappointing … Continued
From trade disputes to declining corporate profits to yield-curve inversion, there is no shortage of issues for worrywarts to worry about. From recent highs, major US equity indices have dropped in the mid- to high-single digits. Medium term, more downside … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 330.6k, up 42.6k. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.46 percent) fell eight basis points this week. Not surprising considering it was a risk-off week in … Continued
There was a massive drop in money-market assets last week. This is a potential green shoot should this continue, although bulls could not quite cash in on it last week. The mother of all potential green shoots – foreigners – … Continued
Major equity indices are within striking distance of fresh highs. Bulls hope the low hurdle in 1Q19 earnings helps put volatility under more pressure. Trader reaction to earnings is key. Major US equity indices are a stone’s throw away from … Continued
Kudos to equity bulls for pulling off an impressive reversal off of late-December lows. Major indices have now rallied for over three months, pushing them into extended territory. Looking at VIX futures, a lot of the good news is in … Continued
The Fed meets this week. It already shifted its bias from hawkish to dovish, helping stocks. With the economy softening, in due course the Fed may once again deploy balance sheet as a tool, which will initially help stocks, but … Continued
Since late December, US stocks have rallied massively. Yet, investor sentiment has not caught up. Reason for bulls to worry or rejoice? The answer may lie in who decisively wins the bull-bear tug of war around 2800 on S&P 500. … Continued
Corporate buybacks were the savior last year, even as investors took cash out of equities and foreigners reduced exposure to US stocks. The status quo needs to change. Bulls cannot continue betting on continued buyback momentum. On a 12-month rolling … Continued