The S&P 500 as well as the Nasdaq 100 stalled at 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of their February-March decline, before rallying past the golden ratio. The Russell 2000 achieved that feat last week and immediately came under pressure. If it … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 26, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 38.1k, down 55.1k. The 10-year treasury yield (0.65 percent) has essentially gone sideways for nearly three months now. This was at a time when … Continued
Investors Intelligence bulls this week posted the highest since early October 2018 when US stocks were peaking. This time around, stocks rallied big the last 15 weeks. Bullish sentiment is way elevated. The Russell 2000, which currently sits at crucial … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 17, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 245.3k, up 66.4k. Bond bears (on price) keep hammering on a potentially crucial level. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.92 percent) dropped to 1.43 percent … Continued
Two weeks after the Russell 2000 breaks out, November’s data shows big improvement in small-business profit trend. Job openings is another data point worth watching. Small-business openings currently are diverging with the national trend. The recent breakout in small-caps is … Continued
The Russell 2000 has broken out. There are many reasons to doubt the breakout – ranging from elevated valuations to falling profit estimates to several soft economic data points. But as long as the breakout remains intact, bulls deserve the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 342.9k, up 128.4k. On February 5 when Jerome Powell took over as Fed chair the S&P 500 large cap index dropped 4.1 percent, and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 15, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 200.6k, down 29.2k. The annual Jackson Hole economic policy symposium – slated for August 24-26 this year – is known for its news-making potential. … Continued
The US dollar index (93.44) of late is showing some nice price action. Will it be enough to lead non-commercials to begin to accumulate net longs in US dollar index futures? A sustained rally can reverberate through a whole host … Continued
Last week’s mini sell-off in U.S. equities did not materialize all of a sudden. This was building for a while. The Russell 2000 small-cap index in particular peaked as early as July 25. Investors/traders in general gravitate toward small-caps when … Continued