XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (58.96) is up 3.8 percent month-to-date, and is on pace to rally 12 straight months, with short squeeze helping. In this context, Monday’s reversal candle just outside the daily upper Bollinger band may or may … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 8, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 229.8k, up 19k. In the past several months, several Fed officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, have expressed concern over persistently rising stock-market valuations. Using … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the February 16-28 period in the Nasdaq and NYSE Group as well as nine S&P 500 sectors. Nasdaq – short interest ↑ 0.5% p/p; Nasdaq composite ↑ 0.1% … Continued
Over the weekend, non-OPEC producers agreed to cut crude output by 558,000 barrels per day, of which Russia would reduce by 300,000 b/d. This followed OPEC’s November 30 decision to cut output by 1.2 million b/d. The deal goes into … Continued
Last Friday, spot West Texas Intermediate crude ($41.62) produced what looked like a shooting star near its 200-day moving average ($42.77). Right above lied another layer of resistance at $43.50 going back to January 2015 (Chart 1). A shooting star … Continued
In the latest week, non-commercials cut net longs in gold futures by three percent period-over-period to 169,512 contracts. This was the first weekly reduction in eight weeks (Chart 1). The prior week’s holdings were the highest since February 3rd last … Continued
Arguably, if U.S. stocks followed crude oil or economic data, they probably would be a lot lower. Operating earnings of S&P 500 companies peaked at $29.60 in 3Q14, and have been decelerating since. With 474 companies having reported 4Q15 (as … Continued
The top five weights in QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, are: Apple (AAPL), 11.4 percent; Alphabet (GOOGL, formerly Google), 9.2 percent (both A and C); Microsoft (MSFT), 8.5 percent; Amazon (AMZN), 5.8 percent; and Facebook (FB), 4.5 percent. The tech-heavy … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 6, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Since the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, barring comments from hawks like John Williams, president of the San Francisco Fed, and Dennis Lockhart, president … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 19, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The April FOMC minutes for all intents and purposes put a nail in the coffin of June rate-hike odds. At the March meeting, … Continued