Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 2, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 740.2k, down 16.1k. Kudos to non-commercials for having doggedly remained bearish on 10-year Treasury notes. They reaped a bumper crop this week. In September … Continued
The 3Q18 earnings season begins in earnest next week. Small-caps have sold off big into this (more on this here), but not large-caps. The Dow Industrials Wednesday rose to a fresh high, although the session produced a candle with a … Continued
IWM is breaking down, losing one after another support. Amidst this, the daily is grossly oversold. A bounce can happen – or not. This perhaps creates an opportunity for a non-directional trade involving options. Small-caps are taking it on the … Continued
Next week, 3Q18 earnings season gets underway. Estimates are a little lower than when the quarter began. This should help companies meet/beat numbers. Elsewhere, year-over-year growth in 2018 estimates has peaked. Historically, this has had repercussions for the S&P 500. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 25, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 756.3k, up 71.6k. Markets versus the Fed. Odds of a collision next year continue to rise. Post-FOMC meeting this week, the dot plot kept … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 18, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 684.7k, up 2k. The 10-year Treasury rate (3.07 percent) has once again reached a battle zone. The last time these notes yielded just north … Continued
On an absolute basis, margin debt remains huge, but has not grown much this year. Except for corporate buybacks, margin debt, along with other sources of buying power, have softened. The S&P 500 large cap index jumped three percent in … Continued
US equity bears had an excellent opportunity to push prices lower. Indices did come under pressure. But it looks like once again bulls managed to put their foot down on time. The S&P 500 large cap index made a new … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 11, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 682.7k, down 73. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.99 percent) rose from 2.81 percent on August 22 to Friday’s high of three percent. At least … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 4, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 682.8k, up 152.9k. Bulls and bears went back and forth this week around the 50-day moving average until Friday when the 10-year rate (2.94 … Continued