Last week’s mini sell-off in U.S. equities did not materialize all of a sudden. This was building for a while. The Russell 2000 small-cap index in particular peaked as early as July 25. Investors/traders in general gravitate toward small-caps when … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 8, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 229.8k, up 19k. In the past several months, several Fed officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, have expressed concern over persistently rising stock-market valuations. Using … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 1, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 210.9k, down 69.8k. So far this year, there have been two rate hikes – and four altogether since the Fed started raising in December … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 25, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 280.7k, down 1.6k. After seven years of keeping the fed funds rate between zero and 25 basis points, the Fed began to hike in … Continued
The lack of volatility in volatility is once again giving rise to the phrase ‘it is different this time”. If past is any guide, it seldom is. Spot VIX just created a record. VIX goes back to January 1990. In … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 18, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 282.3k, up 25.3k. Through Wednesday, $1.1 billion moved into TLT (iShares 20+year Treasury bond ETF) this month (courtesy of ETF.com). In late April, non-commercials … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 11, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 257k, down 5.9k. On Tuesday, markets interpreted Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony as dovish. Ten-year T-yields fell four basis points to 2.33 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 3, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 263k, down 39.1k. The speed by which long rates rose the past couple of weeks took many by surprise. Intraday between June 26 and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 27, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 302.1k, down 43.1k. Rising asset prices were once again a talk of the Fed town. On Tuesday, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, Stanley Fischer, vice-chair, … Continued
Dips continue to get bought, even as volatility struggles to hold on to gains. On the S&P 500 large cap index, bulls forced a break out of 2400 five weeks ago. Just a few days afterwards, the breakout was defended … Continued