Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 1, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 210.9k, down 69.8k. So far this year, there have been two rate hikes – and four altogether since the Fed started raising in December … Continued
The Russell 2000 small cap index is dangerously close to breaking down. On Wednesday, it violated a rising trend line from February last year – albeit only slightly. Of the four major indices, the Russell 2000 is the first to … Continued
Interesting dynamics are at play in U.S. housing. Sales of both existing and new homes are decent, but price has galloped ahead. Add to that household formation and supply of homes, housing could very well be at an interesting juncture. … Continued
Amidst 2Q17 earnings and elevated multiples, some signs of fatigue are showing up on major U.S. indices. As of last Thursday, 2Q17 operating earnings of S&P 500 companies were on course for $30.70. In the year-ago quarter, they were $25.70 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 25, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 280.7k, down 1.6k. After seven years of keeping the fed funds rate between zero and 25 basis points, the Fed began to hike in … Continued
In U.S. equities, several sentiment measures are flashing red. The difficulty in using these as a signal is that they have been doing so for a while, even as U.S. stocks continue to rally to new and newer highs. Since … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the July 1-14 period in the Nasdaq and NYSE Group as well as nine S&P 500 sectors. Nasdaq The bearish engulfing candle of June 9 when the composite … Continued
The lack of volatility in volatility is once again giving rise to the phrase ‘it is different this time”. If past is any guide, it seldom is. Spot VIX just created a record. VIX goes back to January 1990. In … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 18, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 282.3k, up 25.3k. Through Wednesday, $1.1 billion moved into TLT (iShares 20+year Treasury bond ETF) this month (courtesy of ETF.com). In late April, non-commercials … Continued
Dollar bulls are staring at yet another opportunity to step up and defend support. The U.S. dollar index rallied 13 percent between 91.88 in May 2016 and 103.82 early January this year, which was the highest since December 2002. Since … Continued