There are some early signs markets are undergoing a subtle change – particularly as relates to the dynamics between small- and large-caps. Right after Donald Trump was elected US president on November 8, 2016, small-caps became one of the go-to … Continued
In 1Q18, S&P 500 companies reported $36.54 in operating earnings, up 26.8 percent year-over-year and eight percent quarter-over-quarter. This was non-GAAP. GAAP was up 20.3 percent y/y and 22.5 percent q/q to $33.02. Apart from being a record quarter, 1Q18 … Continued
On the weekly chart, SPY remains grossly overbought, but near term there is room to rally – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. Options can help. US core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) increased 1.96 percent year-over-year in May – essentially two percent. … Continued
Presently, the state of US trade deficit and how the Trump administration is attempting to address it is front and center. In February, the deficit came in at $57.6 billion, with the 12-month total of $589.6 billion, which was the … Continued
The bull market in U.S. stocks is nine years old. While this alone does not necessarily sound the death knell for this aging bull, this is not a time to remain unambiguously sanguine either. Last Friday, the bull turned nine, … Continued
Post U.S. tax-cuts, the sell-side pencils in massive earnings for S&P 500 companies for this year and next. Given already lofty valuations, investors are likely to treat this as an anomaly more than a trend. Earnings estimates for this year … Continued
If small-caps are a gauge of investor mood for risk- on and-off, then they are subtly beginning to lean toward risk-off. Of the four major U.S. indices – the S&P 500 large cap index, Dow Industrials, Nasdaq composite, and the … Continued
The past couple of weeks offered both equity bulls and bears a little something to celebrate. The bulls got the relief rally, and the bears an opportunity to short. What next? Since the S&P 500 large cap index peaked on … Continued
Ten-year Treasury yields are not going along with the Fed’s tightening posture. This could be because of a technical reason or yields could be sending an ominous message. Yields reached a historic low 1.34 percent last July, and have been … Continued
U.S. stocks have done phenomenally well since the February lows. In less than six months through the intra-day high yesterday, the S&P 500 large cap index has rallied north of 20 percent, the Nasdaq 100 index 22.5 percent, and the … Continued