U.S. equity bulls regained momentum last week, but this also put near-term sentiment at/near complacency. Since rising to an all-time high of 2490.87 on August 8, the S&P 500 large cap index was bound by a falling trend line (Chart … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 29, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 283.7k, up 22.5k. Hurricane Harvey may have given the Fed an excuse not to hike come December. At least that is how markets are … Continued
U.S. corporate profits adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption grew 1.3 percent quarter-over-quarter in 2Q17 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.14 trillion, but growth has been uneven since peaking at $2.23 trillion in 4Q14. Since that peak … Continued
The past couple of weeks offered both equity bulls and bears a little something to celebrate. The bulls got the relief rally, and the bears an opportunity to short. What next? Since the S&P 500 large cap index peaked on … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 22, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 261.2k, up 60.7k. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in 40 percent odds of a 25-basis-point increase in December, while September and November are … Continued
From the all-time high of 2490.87 on August 8 through last Friday’s intraday low of 2420.69, the S&P 500 large cap index shed 2.8 percent. Not much in a big scheme of things. It is still up 8.3 percent this … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 15, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 200.6k, down 29.2k. The annual Jackson Hole economic policy symposium – slated for August 24-26 this year – is known for its news-making potential. … Continued
Last week’s mini sell-off in U.S. equities did not materialize all of a sudden. This was building for a while. The Russell 2000 small-cap index in particular peaked as early as July 25. Investors/traders in general gravitate toward small-caps when … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 8, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 229.8k, up 19k. In the past several months, several Fed officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, have expressed concern over persistently rising stock-market valuations. Using … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 1, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 210.9k, down 69.8k. So far this year, there have been two rate hikes – and four altogether since the Fed started raising in December … Continued