As US stocks continue reaching new – and newer – heights, margin debt continues to grow by leaps and bounds. Equity bulls are riding the debt wave, even as bears point to the suffering it will cause eventually. FINRA (Financial … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 28, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 529.8k, down 170.7k. July’s core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – was reported Thursday. Inflation perked up … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 21, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 700.5k, up 2.3k. The 10-year T-yield (2.83 percent) lost five basis points this week. The neckline of a potentially bearish head-and-shoulders formation has been … Continued
Major US equity indices are at/past late-January highs. Investor sentiment, on the other hand, is nowhere near as giddy. Is this good or bad? The Russell 2000 small cap index (1722.54) just broke out of a two-month pennant. Of major … Continued
Bulls put foot down on major US equity indices last week. They have the ball near term. Shorts with medium-term focus can sell weekly puts to raise the short price. The greenback acts strong. The US dollar index (95.98) hit … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 14, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 698.2k, up 111.9k. In the 12 months to July, the US Treasury issued $544.1 billion in notes and bonds. A year ago, issuance totaled … Continued
SPY last week was rejected at channel resistance, coming up $0.63 short of surpassing the all-time high of $286.63 reached January 26. The path of least resistance is down. A covered put might help. There are interesting dynamics at play … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 7, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 586.3k, down 3.8k. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.86 percent) continues to work on a potentially bearish head-and-shoulders formation. On August 1, it hit 3.02 … Continued
Arguably, US stocks are giving off some signs of fatigue. The S&P 500 large cap index (2840.35) is still below its late-January high of 2872.87. The Nasdaq 100 index (7395.49) in the week before was rejected at six-month-old channel resistance; … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 31, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 590.1k, up 80.6k. The first paragraph of this week’s FOMC statement contains the word “strong” twice and “strongly” once in describing the economy. This … Continued