“…the details of the tax legislation suggested that its effects on consumer and business spending – while still uncertain – might be a bit greater in the near term than they had previously thought. Although several saw increased upside risks … Continued
After a big rally in recent months, 10-year Treasury yields are giving out signs of fatigue – at least near term. Interest rates have suddenly become the talk of the town. Ten-year yields rallied from 2.03 percent on September 7 … Continued
After a roller-coaster ride since peaking late January, U.S. equity indices have once again approached potentially critical technical juncture. The S&P 500 large cap index peaked on January 26 at an intraday high of 2872.87, then dropping 11.8 percent intraday … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 13, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 296.9k, down 30.6k. If 10-year Treasury yields (2.88 percent) reach three percent – or even where they are currently – would/could that be used … Continued
Small-business optimism remains near multi-decade highs. Small-cap stocks do not quite share this optimism. The NFIB optimism index rose two points month-over-month in January to 106.9, just a hair’s breadth away from November’s 107.5, which was a 34-year high. Optimism … Continued
It is a top. But is this the top? All of a sudden, it is not a crazy question to ask. The ferocity by which U.S. equities have dropped in recent sessions, one has to wonder if this marks a … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the January 16-31 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (58.42) shorts gave up as the ETF continued higher, rising to a new all-time … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 327.5k, up 111.9k. The bond market is worried. Yes, beginning last October the Fed has been curtailing its bloated $4.5-trillion balance sheet. Yes, foreigners’ … Continued
U.S. equity bulls stepped up near important support Tuesday. Those lows have now taken on significance. Should there be no violation, the path of least resistance is up – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. In the early months of 2016, stocks … Continued
As of Monday this month, XLF (SPDR financial sector ETF) is down 6.3 percent. This followed a 6.6-percent rally in January. Since early September last year through last week’s high of $30.33, it jumped 27.5 percent. Both the weekly and … Continued