Fed Hikes Wednesday, But Several Key Assets Key Off Of Technicals

Wednesday, the FOMC met.  The fed funds rate went up another 25 basis points to between 1.5 percent and 1.75 percent.  One would think this would drive market action.  But looking at a diverse set of assets, technicals played a … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 13, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 271.4k, down 90.8k. Once again, 10-year Treasury yields are retreating from important resistance.  Caught in a three-decade-old descending channel, the 10-year rate came very … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 342.9k, up 128.4k. On February 5 when Jerome Powell took over as Fed chair the S&P 500 large cap index dropped 4.1 percent, and … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 24, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 153.6k, up 47.3k. FOMC meets next week.  The October 31-November 1 meeting is the seventh this year, with the eighth, and final, scheduled for … Continued

Unwinding Of Balance Sheet News – Real News Is When Fed Reverses Decision

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

It is probably a foregone conclusion that the Fed later today leaves interest rates unchanged, and will announce a plan to gradually shrink its massive portfolio of mortgage and Treasury bonds. The question is, how would the markets react?  The … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 18, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 282.3k, up 25.3k. Through Wednesday, $1.1 billion moved into TLT (iShares 20+year Treasury bond ETF) this month (courtesy of ETF.com). In late April, non-commercials … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 6, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 212.1k, down 46.1k. The Fed is all set to hike next week.  Futures are pricing in 99.6-percent odds of a 25-basis-point increase.  This will … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 25, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 214.6k, up 255.9k. Ten-year Treasury yields did indeed test support-turned-resistance at 2.31 percent this week.  In fact, they rose all the way to 2.35 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 6, 2016. 10-year note: Regardless how Mr. Mario Draghi, ECB president, describes the €20-billion/month reduction in asset purchases beginning next March until December, it looks like tapering, walks like tapering, and … Continued