Equity bears have been rewarded the past couple of weeks, with the S&P 500 large cap index down 1.6 percent. There is likely more reward medium term, but near-term is a toss-up. In the wake of the 2.5-percent drop on … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 3, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Last week, the Bank of Japan shocked markets by not adding to its stimulus program. The yen jumped 2.4 percent. This week, the … Continued
March sales of existing and new homes were a mixed bag, with the former up 5.1 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.33 million units, and the latter down 1.5 percent m/m to 511,000 units. Post-bubble, sales … Continued
Back in the middle of December, when the Fed hiked rates for the first time in nine years, the FOMC’s dot plot optimistically forecasted four quarter-point hikes this year. On December 16th – the day the FOMC statement came out … Continued
U.S. stocks have come a long way since February 11th. Intra-day, off that low through last Friday’s high, here is how much major U.S. indices have rallied: Dow Industrials, 10.1 percent; S&P 500 large cap index (Chart 1), 11 percent; … Continued
Arguably, if U.S. stocks followed crude oil or economic data, they probably would be a lot lower. Operating earnings of S&P 500 companies peaked at $29.60 in 3Q14, and have been decelerating since. With 474 companies having reported 4Q15 (as … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 23, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Negative interest rates have suddenly become the topic du jour. Last month, Japan waded into negative interest rate policy (NIRP). This was totally … Continued