In the midst of a flattening yield curve, the 10-year T-yield is once again hammering on resistance at just north of three percent. Just a month ago, these notes yielded 2.81 percent. At least a pause is due, raising the … Continued
Bulls put foot down on major US equity indices last week. They have the ball near term. Shorts with medium-term focus can sell weekly puts to raise the short price. The greenback acts strong. The US dollar index (95.98) hit … Continued
US economic data of late have been coming in strong. Real GDP printed 4.1 percent growth in 2Q18. This was the strongest growth rate in 15 quarters. As of last Friday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model expects 4.4 percent growth … Continued
Arguably, US stocks are giving off some signs of fatigue. The S&P 500 large cap index (2840.35) is still below its late-January high of 2872.87. The Nasdaq 100 index (7395.49) in the week before was rejected at six-month-old channel resistance; … Continued
With a feeble rectangle breakout and rejection at the upper end of a rising channel last week, SPY is giving out signs of fatigue. Things look good. Even great, some might argue. This Friday, the first print of 2Q18 GDP … Continued
After coming under pressure for months, the ratio of inventories to sales has slightly risen since bottoming last November. It is worth watching. US real GDP growth decelerated to 2.9 percent in 4Q17. This followed growth of 3.2 percent in … Continued
Once again, 10-year Treasury yields failed at the top end of a long-term channel, although can push higher near term, creating a trading opportunity in TLT. Close, but no cigar! The 10-year rate came very close to breaking out of … Continued
After healthy growth last three quarters, the U.S. economy is in deceleration, magnitude and duration notwithstanding. On Wednesday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model was forecasting 1Q18 real GDP growth of 1.9 percent, revised down from 2.5 percent, reflecting this week’s … Continued
Equity bears have been rewarded the past couple of weeks, with the S&P 500 large cap index down 1.6 percent. There is likely more reward medium term, but near-term is a toss-up. In the wake of the 2.5-percent drop on … Continued
April’s retail sales released last Friday were better than expected – up 1.3 percent month-over-month and up three percent year-over-year. This was the largest m/m increase since March last year. Yet, the Treasury yield curve flattened in that session, with … Continued