Homebuilder-focused ETF’s are at/near record highs. Momentum is intact, but builder sentiment – also at multi-year highs – is worth watching. Homebuilding stocks are on fire. XHB (SPDR S&P homebuilders ETF) is already up 5.6 percent for the year. Monday, … Continued
Spot West Texas Intermediate crude, up 54-plus percent since last June alone, is giving out signs of fatigue. Non-commercials have been on the right side of this trade. As they usually are. These traders follow the trend, and the trend … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 16, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 89.3k, down 107.6k. A Bloomberg article last week about China beginning to weigh slowing or halting purchases of U.S. Treasurys gave the bond market … Continued
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields peaked in September 1981 at 15.8 percent, then dropped all the way to bottom at 1.34 percent in July 2016. Some bull market in bonds! On an absolute basis, the 10-year is still trapped in a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.9k, up 121k. Is this the big one? The big breakout in 10-year Treasury yields, that is? The 10-year has been trapped in a … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the December 16-29 (2017) period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Already up 3.2 percent for the month/year, XLB (62.47) stayed with the daily upper … Continued
A trade with a neutral to bullish bias may be brewing in utilities. Since peaking at $57.23 on November 15 last year, XLU (SPDR utilities sector ETF) came under severe pressure – down 10.8 percent through last Friday’s low of … Continued
A P/E of 17x on the S&P 500 large cap index cannot be called euphoric. A little above average, sure, but not euphoric. On forward operating earnings using next year’s estimates, that is what the index is currently trading at. … Continued
Stocks in general essentially began 2018 where 2017 left off. Take financials. XLF (SPDR financial sector ETF) was up 20 percent last year. In the first four sessions this year, it is up another 1.8 percent. Although major indices have … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 2, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 75.8k, down 7.8k. It is on. Doves versus hawks. At least for now. FOMC minutes for the December 12-13 meeting highlighted the growing tension … Continued