Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 20, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 214.5k, down 82.5k. Three percent on the 10-year Treasury note is a closely watched level by many. If it is surpassed, stops likely get … Continued
“…the details of the tax legislation suggested that its effects on consumer and business spending – while still uncertain – might be a bit greater in the near term than they had previously thought. Although several saw increased upside risks … Continued
After a big rally in recent months, 10-year Treasury yields are giving out signs of fatigue – at least near term. Interest rates have suddenly become the talk of the town. Ten-year yields rallied from 2.03 percent on September 7 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 13, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 296.9k, down 30.6k. If 10-year Treasury yields (2.88 percent) reach three percent – or even where they are currently – would/could that be used … Continued
How times have changed? It did not take long for markets’ attention to do a 360 from fears of deflation to that of inflation. January’s consumer price index was reported Wednesday. It was stronger than expected. In the 12 months … Continued
U.S corporate bond issuance slowed down in January, but it is too early to read too much into this. In the first month of the year, corporations issued $109 billion in investment-grade (IG) and $23.2 billion in high-yield (HY) – … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 327.5k, up 111.9k. The bond market is worried. Yes, beginning last October the Fed has been curtailing its bloated $4.5-trillion balance sheet. Yes, foreigners’ … Continued
Mediocre demand for Wednesday’s auction of $24 billion in 10-year Treasury notes probably reflects worries over rising deficit spending. In that auction, yields obviously were not attractive enough to entice aggressive buying. Ten-year yields ended the session up eight basis … Continued
Risk happens fast. All of a sudden, no one is buying the dip. Rather, the quest for protection has skyrocketed. In mere six sessions, VIX went from 11.08 to 38.80, closing Monday at 37.32. This was the highest since August … Continued
Having stopped responding to improving U.S. fundamentals, the US dollar index currently sits at a confluence of technical support. The U.S. economy in recent quarters has put up strong numbers. Real GDP in 4Q17 grew at a seasonally adjusted annual … Continued